Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the crisis caused by the introduction of a new 28-point plan for resolving the conflict appeared – temporarily – to have been defused. A Washington representative spoke of "notable headway" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its countermove: an extensive attack of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Diplomacy and Destruction
The sequence of opposing developments captured the harsh reality of the recent timeframe. By day, diplomatic battles are fought: hopeful statements are released from various governments. Considerable effort is expended on restraining certain initiatives. By night, Moscow brutally reminds the world that, for them, military action persists as the main instrument for achieving "settlement".
Nighttime Reality
As the offensive progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's exposure was exposed. Ukraine is capable of detecting rocket firings from across the border, a capability enabled by timely intelligence. From vantage locations, defense planes that had been scrambled to intercept incoming cruise missiles streaked across the sky – modern combat jets delivered to Ukraine by Western partners.
Moments later, Kyiv's air-defence systems thundered: several firings targeted at a Russian ballistic missile. This was a modern interception technology at work, probably delivered by allied countries. Every launch jolts you unexpectedly, rattling buildings. The brief panic quickly transforms into sober acceptance: maybe the approaching threat won't strike its target this time, protecting urban areas from devastation and another blackout.
Persistent Threats
Not long after, a heavy machine gun opened up on a drone close by, part of a defensive team – probably imported technology. Regrettably, the bullets missed the opposing UAV – it pressed on overhead toward its objective.
Periodically, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv greeted the morning news: seven people killed, damage and infrastructure problems in many homes as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As always, everyone still maintained normal activities – experiencing conflict. But those 24 hours illustrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on external assistance – a need that neighboring countries are clearly incapable to substitute in the immediate future.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The comprehensive proposal from Washington generated strong feelings, debate and profound anxiety – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after prior negotiation attempts and multilateral gatherings.
Every new initiative from Washington follows the identical sequence: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, effectively counters. They stabilise the situation but never actually secure success. This cycle will, no doubt, endure.
Political Considerations
It is convenient to criticize particular leaders of repeatedly advocating Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the whole story. US administration works based on a principle understood by international relations experts: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have lost on the battlefield. The US administration assumes that it is unfeasible to compel Moscow to surrender the territory that it presently holds in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The issue is that while recognising this factual reality, US leadership does nothing to deter Moscow, through words or deeds, from assuming that the current condition will not change more in its advantage in the months ahead.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, Russian leadership is convinced that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its supporters are nearing depletion. Their motivation to sign a deal that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is almost completely absent. There may be numerous efforts to end hostilities, but they will continue as long as Russia's leader remains completely certain in the outcome.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still hold out, slowly losing civilians and areas but avoiding a entire defensive failure until situations evolve in its favour.
Current Realities
Factually, there are no genuine requirements for a truce. Now, subjective factors are entering the equation: personal goals to mediate resolution and secure international recognition, and Ukrainian leadership's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to unite the population around the flag against any plan Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their priority does not switch to homefront challenges. And although their task will now be much harder after current events, it remains quite doubtful that this will change their overall approach.
These opposing factors are guiding negotiations.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a only one week to terminate the 28 points of the most recent proposal. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by US administration, pushback by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with calming attempts of representatives, and finally, recent disclosures, all served their function.
While new plans based on established approaches are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off diplomatic offensives from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and show specific hesitation to change the course of events, if they maintain solidarity and improve their protective measures at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the foreseeable future, primarily depend on continued Western support.
