A decade after the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that split the country and unleashed turmoil, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and voters drifted into Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two prominent journalists from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can build support rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our islands remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Intends to Provoke Discussion
The pair have examined the governmental, financial and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the issue with a series of speaking events that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everybody, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose results have not been spelled out because then you land with an extraordinarily polarised community where the losing side are resistant to losing and the those successful don't know exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say such a time is imminent, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, resulting in ambiguity when or if there will be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has masked the shortage of informed dialogue, stated McBride.
"Many are for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to achieve it is mostly absent. A lot has occurred in academia but very few elected officials or advocates are willing to participate with even the essentials. For instance, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, neither author supports unity or the current situation. Each writes two essays that aim for objectivity in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling economic and social data, historical precedents and structural examples.
Discussions range over flags and symbols, levies, healthcare systems, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The goal is to inform and provoke discussion.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Debate indicates an recognition of the notion that there might be good arguments on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate report they favour unification but refuse greater financial contributions or introducing a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to work out what the offer from pro-unification movements is other than just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist thinks a referendum in his era is possible and that it might occur suddenly. "You could have just a mad or a ill-advised or a negligent secretary of state who states: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate arguments, he stated. "Somebody will succeed here and somebody will ultimately lose but both parties has got something to gain from the other's arguments."
Appeal for More Extensive Debate
Westminster should join the debate, urged O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish question."
